Copper gains ground in a broader exploration recovery
S&P Global's October 20, 2026, report puts copper exploration budgets 32% above their 2025 level. The US$4.3 billion allocation is the highest since the US$4.7 billion recorded in 2012. Copper now accounts for 26% of global nonferrous exploration budgets, compared with 21% in 2017. All figures are expressed in current US dollars.
The firm's Corporate Exploration Strategies study forecasts US$16.5 billion in worldwide nonferrous exploration budgets for 2026, versus US$12.4 billion a year earlier. Gold and copper lead the recovery, which follows three subdued years and represents the largest annual increase in more than a decade.
Junior miners have expanded their role in copper exploration: their 29% budget share is more than twice the 2017 proportion, and 643 juniors are exploring for the metal, the most since 2012. Major mining companies still account for the largest share of planned allocations, at 64%.
Across commodities, Canada remains the leading exploration region. Its 2026 budgets total US$3.14 billion, up 37%, or US$841 million, from 2025. Gold accounts for most of that increase, adding US$668 million to reach US$1.92 billion; copper allocations increased by US$123.2 million.
Early-stage funding supports new target testing
Companies have budgeted US$1.11 billion for early-stage copper exploration in 2026, a 38% increase from 2025. This work searches for new deposits, with drilling results and subsurface data helping determine where subsequent exploration should focus.
At Buen Retiro in Chile, Fitzroy Minerals has begun a 5,000-meter drilling campaign covering nine new copper targets. In its October 22 update, the company described using machine learning alongside subsurface imaging and earlier drilling data to select untested ground within 400 meters of the surface. Results will guide later drilling and the allocation of exploration funds across the property.
Fitzroy CEO Merlin Marr-Johnson linked demand and the cost of sustaining output to his price outlook: "Vast amounts of money are going just to maintain production. So metal prices have to rise as demand is strong."
Cobra Resources is pursuing both shallow mineralization and deeper porphyry targets at Manna Hill in South Australia. Its October 26 announcement identified several underexplored prospects with copper-gold discovery potential.
Mogotes Metals intends to drill as much as 20,000 meters at Filo Sur to extend recent discoveries and test additional targets, more than tripling the previous season's program. The company's September 22 update also reported that drilling was underway at Beskauga, where plans call for up to 50,000 meters and a Preliminary Economic Assessment within 12 months.
Resource studies and construction preparations advance
Budgets for late-stage copper exploration and feasibility work increased by US$401 million, or 38%, from 2025. Such work helps establish resource estimates and assess mine designs, costs, and potential returns before companies commit to construction.
Abitibi Metals Corp is drilling B26 in Québec to expand the deposit and improve confidence in its estimated resources ahead of a future resource update. Results announced September 17 included a 60.2-meter drill-core interval grading 1.08% copper, with a 9.2-meter interval grading 3.42%. The company plans to use up to three rigs during the remainder of 2026.
Marimaca Copper, meanwhile, is preparing for construction at Chile's Marimaca Oxide Deposit. Its October 1 update reported approval for a grid connection and a preliminary arrangement for power from 100% renewable sources. Estimated electricity costs are near the US$93 per megawatt-hour assumed in the 2025 Definitive Feasibility Study. The proposed terms would allow flexibility in power purchases as production ramps up.
Existing infrastructure shapes restart planning
A restart can require less new construction when processing facilities are already available, but their suitability still needs to be established. Resource studies and processing tests assess whether the planned ore supply can use those facilities; refurbishment assessments determine the remaining capital requirements.
Selkirk Copper's planning includes an existing processing plant capable of handling 4,100 metric tons per day. By October 14, the company had drilled 54,711 meters, surpassing its original 50,000-meter target. Logistics and cost efficiencies allowed the extra drilling without exceeding the schedule or budget.
In its October 15 update, Selkirk targeted the first quarter of 2027 for a Mineral Resource Estimate to inform feasibility work and refine mine planning around the existing infrastructure.
Selkirk President and CEO M. Colin Joudrie said: "This market is short copper and it's very short on the quality of copper concentrates that we will produce: 38% copper, very rare in the marketplace. And we're doing it on a timeline that allows them to envision the prices we're seeing today for that production."
Near-term surpluses and longer-term supply gaps
The market forecasts accompanying this exploration recovery address different periods and measures of supply. The International Copper Study Group projects refined copper surpluses of 104,000 metric tons in 2026 and 368,000 metric tons in 2027, according to Canadian Mining Journal's October 20 report. That outlook compares refined production with consumption rather than assessing whether mine capacity can satisfy longer-term demand.
BloombergNEF's Transition Metals Outlook 2026, released October 20, forecasts a copper supply deficit starting in 2028. By 2035, it projects a gap of 3 million metric tons, equivalent to 8% of consumption, with demand growing 34% by then. For 2050, BNEF forecasts a deficit of 20 million metric tons, or 44% of projected demand.
BNEF estimates that new mines require US$332 billion in investment. Its demand forecast reaches almost 46 million tons in 2050, a 61% increase from 2026.
The International Energy Agency offered a separate assessment in its March 2, 2026, commentary: the current project pipeline could leave a 30% copper supply deficit by 2035. The agency cited deteriorating ore grades and fewer discoveries. Average global copper mine grade has fallen 40% since 1991, and just 5% of the deposits discovered over the past 35 years were found in the last decade.
The IEA also reported record copper prices in early 2026. After first exceeding US$12,000 per metric ton in December 2025, prices briefly traded above US$14,500 intraday in January. The agency attributed the rise to mine disruptions, US inventory accumulation amid tariff uncertainty, and expectations for demand growth from electrification and AI.
Exploration funding precedes production by years
S&P Global estimates that copper discoveries take approximately 17.5 years, on average, to reach production. That industry-wide measure is not a timetable for any individual project.
Drilling and resource studies provide early evidence for development decisions; later technical and economic work helps determine whether additional investment is justified. Defined drilling and study milestones offer a way to assess what exploration budgets have achieved before a project generates mining revenue.
