The monthly loss is still an intraday measure
The Coinbase spot quote at 12:53 UTC on October 31 was approximately $77,414. Compared with Bitcoin's roughly $83,555 starting price at 00:00 UTC on October 1, that represents a decline of about 7.4%.
Earlier reports captured different points in the selloff. CryptoTicker put October's loss at 6.5% with Bitcoin trading at $78,186 on October 30, while an earlier CoinOtag snapshot that day showed a decline of about 3.8%. Differences in timestamps, price sources and currency pairs mean those estimates do not necessarily conflict, but neither reflects the October 31 quote.
CoinGecko listed an October 30 daily close of about $77,223, but its October 31 closing value remained unavailable because the UTC day had not ended. A final monthly return cannot be established before that close.
A breach, fund withdrawals and pressure on risk assets
The sharpest late-month disruption followed Binance's disclosure of a security breach with an estimated impact of $6.3 billion. According to CoinDesk, forced liquidations across leveraged crypto positions totaled about $1.53 billion over 24 hours; long positions accounted for roughly 84%. Bitcoin dropped to around $76,460 before rebounding toward $78,500.
ETF flows also weakened. Finalized figures through October 30 put net withdrawals from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs at approximately $515.9 million for October, following about $2.65 billion of net inflows in September.
October 30 accounted for roughly $643.2 million of redemptions. SoSoValue data cited by Bloomingbit identified it as the largest daily outflow since June 25 and the end of a four-session inflow streak. Withdrawals included $233.70 million from BlackRock's IBIT, $201.04 million from Fidelity's FBTC, $129.55 million from ARK 21Shares' ARKB, $53.32 million from Grayscale's GBTC and $25.72 million from Bitwise's BITB.
Monetary policy added another source of pressure. On October 28, the Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to leave its target range at 3.75%-4.00%. Both dissenters wanted an increase, not a cut. The Fed also changed its description of economic activity from "solid" to "strong," leaving further tightening in play.
Crypto's losses coincided with a broader retreat in technology stocks. Worries over returns on AI infrastructure spending drove the Nasdaq down more than 3% on October 30, and major semiconductor stocks also fell sharply.
The nearby levels: $76,443 and $79,000
After the rebound, Bitcoin remained close to the lows reached during the post-Binance selloff. CryptoTicker recorded $76,443, compared with CoinDesk's approximately $76,460; other feeds showed lows nearer $76,100. The $76,443 figure is therefore a useful reference, not a low shared by every exchange.
CryptoTicker identified that price as the October 30 overnight low and Bitcoin's weakest level since September 18. It was not September's monthly low: other historical feeds show prices below $75,000 during September.
From around $77,400, the $76,443 reference sits about 1.3% below the market. A break beneath it would bring the $75,000-$75,200 zone back into focus. FinanceFeeds had already identified support near $75,200 in its October 30 technical coverage.
On the upside, reclaiming $79,000 would require a gain of a little more than 2%. That would recover some of the losses from the final two sessions, but Bitcoin would still finish October clearly below its opening price.
Prediction markets weigh the remaining hours
With little time left before the deadline, Polymarket assigned only about a 1%-2% probability to Bitcoin touching $75,000 during October. The Yes side was offered near 1.5 cents in the latest snapshot, even though the price was only about 3% above that threshold.
Trading volume for the $75,000 outcome totaled about $1.27 million, compared with roughly $16.9 million across the broader October Bitcoin price market. Earlier on October 31, the individual contract had registered $323,792 in 24-hour volume.
The remaining time is part of that pricing: Bitcoin must touch $75,000 before October ends for the contract to resolve Yes. Nearby contracts reflected different thresholds and deadlines. A dip to $77,000 on October 31 was priced near 48%, while a separate weekly market covering October 26 through November 1 put the probability of reaching $78,000 near 69% in a recent snapshot.
