What the administration has said
Asked about military plans, a White House official declined to discuss them, saying only that Trump retains all options to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The official made no mention of using nuclear arms.
Trump explicitly rejected that possibility in an October 15 Newsmax interview: "I wouldn't use nuclear. We don't have to." His more recent comments have threatened military action without specifying a nuclear attack. Speaking to reporters at his Florida home on Saturday, he said US forces could strike Pickaxe Mountain "very quickly"; at an Iowa rally Sunday, he said Iran must eventually be given "the hammer." Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Washington has not decided whether to launch new strikes.
The Jerusalem Post reported that Trump also identified Pickaxe Mountain as a possible future target during a Newsmax interview earlier in November. Discussing the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, or MOAB, which the report said would allegedly be used, Trump emphasized that it was not nuclear. "It's like a tiny nuclear bomb... The mother of all bombs is one big bomb, but it's not nuclear." On Fox News on Monday, he said a strike on the site could happen "in one hour, as soon as we want, and anytime we want."
Diplomatic discussions have continued alongside those threats. Axios described a frank Saturday phone call in which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought strikes immediately after the US midterm elections, while Trump wanted to allow more time for negotiations.
Carlson's allegations
In his November 2 post on X, the former Fox News host alleged that Netanyahu was pressing Trump to use a nuclear weapon against Pickaxe Mountain, a tunnel complex near Iran's Natanz nuclear facility. Citing an unnamed source, Carlson said Netanyahu called Trump daily about the proposed attack and suggested a decision could come by Saturday, November 7.
Carlson's argument was that conventional US bombs could not reach tunnels protected by about 300 feet, or 91 meters, of granite, leaving a nuclear weapon as the only effective option. That was his claim, not a confirmed US military assessment.
He portrayed the administration as divided: Vice President JD Vance and envoy Steve Witkoff supported a deal, he said, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Adm. Brad Cooper, who commands US forces in the Middle East, opposed a negotiated settlement and favored renewed large-scale military operations. Carlson also alleged that Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe were "following Netanyahu's lead." He tied Netanyahu's pressure to Israel's October 27 election, which left the prime minister's bloc without a majority.
Carlson predicted catastrophic consequences, writing, "After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable." He also warned, "At this pace, a global depression is imminent," and said a nuclear attack would accelerate the destruction. He urged the "hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children" in such an event to "speak up." These were Carlson's predictions, not independently established outcomes.
Limited strikes amid a pause in major fighting
The United States and Iran have been in conflict since February. Large-scale fighting has paused, but the two sides have continued to exchange limited strikes.
Around November 2, US forces struck Iran's Qeshm Island in an operation an American official characterized as limited and "defensive," according to a Wall Street Journal report cited by The Jerusalem Post. The official said the operation did not mark a return to major combat. Earlier that day, Trump had answered "no" when asked whether he was considering resuming strikes on Iran after the midterms.
The site and the limits of what is known
Pickaxe Mountain, also called Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, is in Isfahan province, about 2 kilometers south of Natanz and roughly 220 kilometers south of Tehran. The underground complex is cut into dense, hard granite, unlike the sedimentary rock of the surrounding Zagros range. Estimates place its main halls 80 to 100 meters below the mountain, with some assessments putting them at least 100 meters deep. Four tunnel entrances are arranged in pairs on its eastern and western sides.
Work on the complex began in fall 2020 and expanded in 2021 following explosions near Natanz. Ali Akbar Salehi, then the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, announced plans for a "more modern, spacious and comprehensive" facility inside a nearby mountain. Iran describes its purpose as the "production and assembly of advanced centrifuges," but inspectors have not received full access to verify that account. Tehran denies nuclear work at Pickaxe Mountain and has warned against further attacks.
Public assessments have not established that the complex is operating. The Institute for Science and International Security judged it unfinished and nonoperational in July 2026. In September, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said satellite imagery suggested it was not yet capable of enriching uranium. The institute's October assessment described a dormant site, with access through entrances blocked or restricted and no sign of major construction underway. The International Atomic Energy Agency has requested information and access; inspections have not independently established what the facility contains.
The question of whether conventional weapons could destroy the complex remains separate from Carlson's assertion that a nuclear attack is necessary. The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator is the most powerful conventional bunker-buster in the US arsenal. Carried by the B-2 stealth bomber, the 30,000-pound weapon was used against Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025. Weapons experts have questioned its ability to destroy a site as deep as Pickaxe Mountain beneath granite: published ground-penetration figures cannot simply be applied to that type of mountain.
Wide circulation and divided reactions
The post reached tens of millions of viewers before Tuesday's midterm elections. Newsweek reported more than 48 million views on X by Monday, while Jewish Insider reported a count above 45 million. Among those sharing it were prominent Trump critics: CNN chief international anchor Christiane Amanpour added the caption "This would be insane," and reposts also came from Drop Site News co-founder Ryan Grim, former congressional candidate George Conway and Hunter Biden.
Other responses ranged from alarm to outright rejection. Former Georgia lawmaker Marjorie Taylor Greene said Trump "would be committing crimes against humanity" if he carried out the attack. Pro-Trump activist Laura Loomer dismissed Carlson's claim as a "hoax."
Gary Samore, who teaches politics at Brandeis University, has described a US nuclear attack on Iran as "extremely unlikely." Last month, National Iranian American Council head Jamal Abdi called reports that US officials might use nuclear weapons in Iran "deeply alarming."
Carlson has issued similar warnings several times since April, according to The Daily Beast. The White House rejected one of his earlier Iran claims in May as "fake news."
